The agreement between the two countries marks a significant breakthrough in NATO’s efforts to improve its defenses after Russia’s invasion.
Jens Stoltenberg, the alliance’s chief, told reporters in Vilnius on Monday that Turkey would ask its parliament to “as quickly as possible” advance Sweden membership in NATO. This sudden change of heart comes after months and months of negotiations with Turkey over its demands. It also comes on the eve a two-day NATO summit, where many leaders are anxious to present a united front to Vladimir Putin and to let him know that his war against Ukraine has strengthened the alliance.
NATO’s northern expansion heralds a major shift in European security after Russia’s aggressiveness led to a number of changes, including an increase in defense spending in Germany as well as plans to reinstate conscription in France. After the early 2022 attack in Ukraine, public opinion in Finland and Sweden changed almost overnight.
Stoltenberg stated in Vilnius that “Completing Sweden’s accession to NATO represents a historic move which benefits the security and safety of all NATO Allies in this critical time.” “I won’t give you exact dates.” This is a commitment that’s clear. Erdogan made a demand for a “quid pro quo” earlier in the day – Sweden would join NATO if EU opened its door to Turkey. But Brussels reminded him that these are two separate processes. A solution was found behind closed doors in just hours after the unexpected request.
Erdogan met first with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kritersson, and then European Council president Charles Michel. Michel announced that the EU would present a report about its relations with Turkey “with the aim of moving forward in a strategic and forward-looking way” after the conversations.
Erdogan, according to a Turkish official received assurances regarding key demands. This included Stockholm’s approach towards supporters of Kurdish rebels operating on its territory. The lifting of defense-related sanctions was also progressed, and EU officials agreed that they would speed up their negotiations with Turkey on membership. This included upgrading the customs Union and removing visa restrictions for its citizens.
Stoltenberg believes that Hungary, which is the only NATO member to have not yet approved Sweden’s bid for membership, will do the same, as “they said they didn’t want be the last to not ratify.”
Uncertain is the extent to which Biden’s remarks over the weekend, that Turkey’s purchase by American F-16 fighter planes was “in play”, contributed to Erdogan’s U turn on Sweden. Biden issued a statement saying he welcomed this agreement, and that the two leaders would meet on Tuesday.
Congress must approve major U.S. weapons sales to foreign allies. A bipartisan group had informed Biden this year that they should not consider the $20 billion purchase of warplanes before Sweden ratifies its membership.
When journalists questioned Bob Menendez in Washington, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who was one of Washington’s biggest holdouts at that time, it appeared he was softening his stance. He said that “there could be a way forward” “next week.”
Ankara has been accusing Stockholm for more than a decade of not doing enough to combat the Kurdish terrorist groups that it considers.
The Turkish government’s sudden change of heart comes after a flurry diplomatic activity, which saw Kristersson visiting Biden in Washington and Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom meeting his Turkish counterpart at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.
“I worked hard to make this happen, including nearly endless conversations with other presidents and prime ministers. The response has been excellent,” Kristersson said Monday. “Today, we made a major step towards completing the ratification.”
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy discussed Sweden’s goals with Erdogan on his visit to Istanbul in July.
Ihor Zhovkva is the deputy chief of staff for Zelenskiy, and he was in charge of foreign relations. “Today’s announcement is important because it shows that consensus can be achieved within NATO,” he said. “We hope that more political decisions are made during the summit, and Ukraine will become the 33rd country.”
As soon as the accession is completed, Sweden will be a part of NATO. This will give it control over the Baltic Sea. It also gives the alliance the upper-hand in the Arctic – both of which are strategic entrances for Russia – even though Moscow is still bogged down with its invasion of Ukraine. NATO will have seven out of eight Arctic countries.
The addition of Sweden to the alliance will simplify the defense planning process. NATO will not only benefit from Sweden’s combat planes, naval prowess, and other military assets. It will also be able to shuttle troops or equipment easily across Nordic territory.
It will be easier for NATO to provide military support to the Baltic countries in case of crisis, with both Finland and Sweden as members.
This area has been viewed as a weak point in the EU because it is a very narrow corridor that connects Poland and Lithuania, sandwiched by Russia’s exclave Kaliningrad and Belarus.