UK Bond Market Volatility as Bank of England Weighs Pace of Gilt Sales

The Bank of England is closely monitoring market movements following heightened volatility in the government bonds market. Governor Andrew Bailey disclosed to MPs that the Bank will “seriously” consider recent market turbulence as it decides the pace of its quantitative tightening programme this month. This process, involving the sale of government bonds, has come under scrutiny as gilt yields soar to levels not seen in nearly three decades, reflecting concerns about the health of the UK’s public finances and rising borrowing costs across global markets.

Bailey clarified that the increase in long-term borrowing costs cannot be attributed solely to the central bank’s bond selling but instead mirrors broader global trends. He stressed the importance of not focusing too heavily on long-dated bonds, such as the 30-year gilt, arguing that the UK remains “middle of the pack” among advanced economies regarding credit risk. The sharp rise in yields, particularly on 30-year bonds, should not be misunderstood as a sign of fiscal peril, according to the governor, who urged for calm and measured commentary from policymakers and market analysts alike.

Questioned about inflation and public perception, Bailey noted that market expectations remain aligned with the Bank’s 2 per cent target while the wider public often bases its views on current, not future, inflation rates. Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli pointed out that food inflation is projected to rise and then fall later in the year, with factors such as increased animal feed costs and the ongoing effects of climate change driving fluctuations in commodity markets. The Bank continues to assert that domestic influences on inflation are more significant than those stemming from international developments, including recent tariffs imposed by the US.

On the subject of central bank independence, Bailey warned strongly against political interference in monetary policy, both in the UK and globally. He referenced recent developments in the United States, describing any threat to central bank independence as “a very dangerous road”. The Bank’s independence, said Bailey, underpins monetary and financial stability, which in turn allows elected officials to make policy decisions with confidence in the economic foundations the Bank provides.

Bailey commented on the effectiveness of US tariffs, acknowledging that their impact on UK inflation has been smaller than originally feared. While the situation remains fluid, he emphasised the need to focus on homegrown inflationary pressures rather than overstate the effects of trade barriers. As the market digests these signals from the Bank of England, investors remain attuned to announcements on fiscal discipline and public spending from Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has promised a “tight grip” on the public purse ahead of the upcoming autumn budget.

The central bank’s commitment to a careful review of current market conditions highlights the delicate balance it must strike between supporting market stability and adhering to its policy objectives. Market participants will be watching closely as the Bank determines its next steps in the evolving landscape of UK fiscal and monetary policy.