UK Economic Growth Forecasts Downgraded Despite Increased Investment

The Office for Budget Responsibility has revised United Kingdom growth forecasts downward for each of the next five years, undermining efforts by Chancellor Rachel Reeves to stimulate economic output. These downgrades are attributed to a sustained lack of investment under previous Conservative administrations, which the OBR claims has restricted the UK’s potential for expansion.

Rachel Reeves is expected to confirm in the upcoming budget that the growth projections for 2025 through 2030 have been adjusted lower, despite significant new investment initiatives. Treasury officials remain concerned the OBR continues to view the economic outlook as subdued, even as the government pledges to invest an additional £120bn in national infrastructure, streamline business regulations, introduce a new planning bill, and establish trade agreements abroad.

Reeves has acknowledged publicly that the revision reflects the OBR’s more cautious expectations about future productivity. This measure, which assesses the output generated per worker per hour, is central to economic growth and tax revenue. The downgrades could reduce future annual tax receipts by £10bn to £20bn, putting additional pressure on the Chancellor as the next general election approaches.

Among the reported fiscal measures under consideration, the Chancellor may introduce a new levy on properties valued above £2m, raising an estimated £400m to £450m. The budget is also anticipated to extend the income tax threshold freeze until 2030, a policy that could move more earners into higher tax brackets as wages increase. Additional proposals include a pay per mile scheme for electric vehicles to address declining fuel duty returns, and revisions to make salary sacrifice schemes for pensions less generous.

Social welfare policies are also in focus, with expectations of lifting the two child limit for universal credit. Meanwhile, existing measures such as the freeze on rail fares and prescription charges reflect ongoing efforts to mitigate the persistent cost of living crisis.

Despite these interventions, the OBR remains unconvinced that immediate policy responses will materially alter the subdued outlook, highlighting the structural challenges now embedded within the UK economy.