UK Faces Demographic Timebomb As Fertility Rate Hits Historic Low

Britain is facing an unprecedented demographic challenge as new figures reveal the fertility rate in England and Wales has plunged to an all-time low of 1.41 children per woman. This decline, from 1.42 in 2023 and well below the 2010 figure of 1.94, is fuelling concern about the country’s ageing population and the long-term sustainability of public finances.

The so-called replacement rate, necessary for a stable population absent migration, stands at 2.1 children per woman. Not a single local authority met this benchmark last year. Luton recorded the highest rate at exactly two, while areas such as Islington, Brighton and Hove, Cambridge and the City of London languished below one. Despite a slight increase in total births to almost 595,000 last year, the underlying trend remains deeply troubling for demographers and economists alike.

This demographic shift is already impacting British society. Across London, primary schools are closing amid dwindling pupil numbers, and the NHS is contending with rising demand for elderly care rather than for maternity services. The economic implications are significant. With fewer future workers, tax revenue to fund pensions and healthcare is set to decrease, threatening the viability of social support for an older population.

Leading economists warn of potential labour shortages and slower economic growth unless either productivity rises sharply or migration offsets the demographic gap. The country faces difficult political choices about the role of migration in maintaining the workforce, balanced against social and political considerations.

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson recently cited the surging cost of living as a key factor driving the fall in fertility, promising a rollout of more affordable school-based nurseries in response. However, the UK’s fertility challenges are far from unique. Across the developed world, fertility rates have fallen sharply: the OECD average has dropped to 1.46, and only Israel, at 2.89, now surmounts the replacement threshold. At the other end of the scale, South Korea’s birth rate has fallen to a global low of 0.72.

Since the post-war baby boom peak of 2.93 in 1964, Britain’s birth rate has remained stubbornly below replacement level, first dipping beneath that line in 1973. With an increasingly stark imbalance between old and young, and a shrinking pool of taxpayers, Britain’s demographic challenge will require bold policy responses in the years ahead if economic dynamism is to be preserved.