UK Faces Urgent Warning Over Gas Supply Security By 2030 Crisis Looms As Domestic Production Plummets

The UK government has been urged to take decisive action to prevent a gas supply crisis after senior energy advisers warned of significant risks to both households and businesses by the end of the decade. Business Secretary Michael Shanks stated that the government would redouble efforts to decarbonise the economy, prioritising increased gas storage and strengthening import capacity. Shanks criticised previous administrations for insufficient planning, especially given the long-anticipated decline of domestic production from North Sea fields.

Official analysis from the National Energy System Operator indicated that even with an overall reduction in demand for gas, the country could still face supply shortfalls during the coldest periods. The assessment, published without fanfare, highlighted that Britain’s ageing gas infrastructure could prove a key vulnerability. A single major outage could result in supply falling short across every modelled scenario through 2030, according to the report. Such a shortfall would initiate emergency measures including cutting gas to factories and power plants, and in grave circumstances, homes might also be impacted. The duration of such a crisis could extend for weeks or months.

Britain today depends heavily on imported gas, drawing from European pipelines as well as from shipments of liquified natural gas sourced in Qatar and the United States. North Sea production accounted for around a third of supply, but output has now fallen to its lowest level in half a century and is projected to decline further over the coming years. Resilience director at Neso, Deborah Petterson, emphasised the necessity of industry and government collaboration to ensure reliable supply for consumers and industry alike.

Ofgem, the industry regulator, stressed that it would coordinate closely with Neso, government departments, and National Gas, which oversees the national network, to identify and mitigate risks. Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, a director at National Gas, noted that gas remains a vital pillar of UK energy security—essential to heating homes, powering manufacturing, and supporting electricity generation, especially during periods of high demand and low renewables output. He called for careful consideration of the supply landscape and substantial investment in critical network infrastructure.

Even with all infrastructure operating optimally, risks to supply persist, particularly if progress on decarbonisation lags and the UK remains heavily reliant on gas. The government is expected to develop robust contingency plans aimed at safeguarding energy security and insulating consumers and industry from potential shocks as the deadline for transition approaches.