UK house prices rise despite stamp duty changes and global uncertainty

UK house prices rose by an average of 0.3% in April, defying expectations of a decline. According to Halifax, one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, this marks an improvement on the 0.5% dip recorded in March. On an annual basis, house prices have increased by 3.2%, the highest year-on-year growth registered by Halifax so far in 2025.

The average cost of a UK home now stands at £297,781, just £1,000 below the all-time high reached in January. Northern Ireland currently leads the market, with house prices rising by 8.1% over the past year. Meanwhile, the southwest of England, previously buoyed during the pandemic’s “race for space,” saw much more subdued growth of just 0.9% over the same period.

The data came as a surprise to many economists, who had forecast a 0.1% decline for April based on reports from Nationwide and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. These reports cited a rush to complete property transactions before the April stamp duty increase, which added up to £11,250 to the purchases of some first-time buyers, as a key factor in cooling market activity. However, Halifax’s findings suggest that broader market resilience has prevailed.

Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, noted that while stamp duty changes temporarily increased transactions earlier in the year, overall property prices remained strikingly stable in recent months—a consistency unseen since the pandemic. She also observed that the housing market, while currently less dynamic than the post-lockdown boom years of 2021 and 2022, has shown more activity than in 2023 and 2024, when rising mortgage rates dampened demand.

Falling mortgage rates and an improvement in affordability have helped support the market. Most lenders are now offering rates below 4%, a significant reduction from the sharp rate hikes of recent years. Combined with positive wage growth surpassing inflation, these trends have made it easier for many buyers to re-enter the market or make new purchases.

Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, believes the April figures highlight the market’s underlying strength despite temporary pressure from tax increases and other economic headwinds. He predicts house price growth of 3.5% in 2025, followed by a further 4.5% rise in 2026, pointing to a stable, if not vigorous, trajectory for the property market.