British inflation rose to 2.6 per cent in November, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will maintain current interest rates during Thursday’s monetary policy meeting. The increase, reported by the Office for National Statistics, marks a significant jump from October’s 2.3 per cent figure.
The rise pushes inflation further above the central bank’s 2 per cent target, reaching its highest level since March. Market analysts anticipate an 8-1 vote favouring the maintenance of the base rate at 4.75 per cent, whilst services inflation remained steady at 5 per cent.
Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, experienced an uptick to 3.5 per cent from 3.3 per cent in the previous month. This movement coincides with recent data showing wage growth acceleration to 5.2 per cent.
The ONS attributed the inflation surge to rising petrol prices and increased costs for entertainment tickets. However, these upward pressures were partially offset by unprecedented declines in air fares. Notably, clothing prices showed an increase despite the November Black Friday sales event.
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, faces mounting economic challenges as recent data revealed a 0.1 per cent economic contraction in October. Her £25 billion increase in employers’ national insurance contributions has prompted businesses to warn of potential price increases to counterbalance elevated tax obligations.
Looking ahead, economists project the Bank of England will implement gradual interest rate reductions next year, with forecasts suggesting four quarter-point cuts across the 12-month period. KPMG UK’s chief economist, Yael Selfin, predicts inflation will persist above the 2 per cent target over the next two years, particularly affecting labour-intensive sectors.
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