UK Inflation Eases to 3.4% as Transport Costs Fall Despite Food Price Surge

British inflation decelerated to 3.4 percent in May, marginally missing economists’ expectations of 3.3 percent, as declining transport costs and petrol prices helped offset rising food inflation.

The Office for National Statistics reported that service sector inflation, a crucial metric monitored by the Bank of England, decreased to 4.7 percent from 5.4 percent in April, aligning with the central bank’s projections. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, dropped to 3.5 percent from 3.8 percent.

Food prices continued their upward trajectory, with inflation jumping to 4.4 percent in May from 3.4 percent in April, reaching levels not seen since February 2024. The surge was particularly notable in chocolate prices, which rose at a record-breaking 17.7 percent, driven by poor cocoa harvests in West Africa.

Transport costs provided some relief for consumers, with air fares declining 5 percent between April and May, contrasting sharply with the 14.9 percent increase observed during the same period last year. The ONS also noted that a correction to vehicle excise duty statistics contributed to the lower annual inflation rate.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25 percent during Thursday’s announcement, with analysts forecasting a 7-2 vote in favour of holding borrowing costs steady. Market participants anticipate one or two additional rate cuts before year-end.

The pound responded positively to the inflation data, strengthening by 0.25 percent against the dollar to $1.34 and gaining 0.07 percent against the euro to €1.16, reflecting investor confidence in the UK’s economic trajectory despite ongoing global uncertainties.