UK Interest Rates Expected to Be Cut by Bank of England as Growth Forecasts Downgrade

The Bank of England is anticipated to announce its fourth interest rate cut since August as part of its efforts to stimulate the flagging UK economy. Analysts predict that the monetary policy committee (MPC) will reduce borrowing costs by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the base interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%. This marks the fastest sequence of rate reductions since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Experts suggest that the decision is likely to be backed by a majority of the nine-member committee, with an 8-1 vote in favour of the cut. However, there remains a possibility of a larger reduction of 0.5 points, as concerns grow over the impact of President Trump’s international tariffs on Britain’s economic performance. This volatility has prompted calls for swift and decisive monetary easing.

Goldman Sachs forecasts further rate cuts at each upcoming MPC meeting, estimating rates could drop to 2.75% by February next year. This aggressive approach underscores concerns about building downside risks in growth and inflation. Recent inflation figures showed a steep decline from last year’s 40-year high of 11.1% to 2.6%, offering the MPC some flexibility in softening its stance.

Domestic pressures have been accompanied by global developments, including delays in the implementation of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which sent financial markets into turmoil. Although stability has returned, fears of long-term damage from these measures persist, urging central banks to act aggressively.

In addition, the Bank of England’s new economic projections, set to accompany the rate decision, are expected to reveal a downgrading of both growth and inflation forecasts. February’s estimates, which anticipated a 0.75% GDP expansion for 2025 and a peak inflation rate of 3.75% during summer, are likely to be revised downward in light of emerging challenges.

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will address these issues in a press conference following the official announcement of the interest rate decision, providing further clarity on the economic outlook and the central bank’s policy trajectory.