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Fresh projections from the Office for National Statistics reveal the UK’s population is on course to expand by approximately 5 million, reaching 72.5 million by 2032, primarily driven by increased international migration figures.
The demographic shift represents a 7.3 per cent growth over the decade, expanding from the current 67.6 million inhabitants. Net migration emerges as the sole growth catalyst, whilst natural population change – the difference between births and deaths – is expected to remain neutral.
ONS statisticians have revised their long-term international migration estimates upward from previous forecasts. The latest models incorporate lower fertility rates and increased life expectancy predictions, with the working-age population projected to grow by 4.1 million to 47.3 million.
Resolution Foundation’s principal economist, Adam Corlett, suggests these demographic changes could bolster the economy: “A larger working-age population translates to enhanced economic output, increased workforce participation, and higher tax revenues, potentially delivering £5 billion in annual fiscal benefits by decade’s end.”
The projections highlight significant shifts in age demographics, with over-85s expected to double to 3.3 million by 2047. Conversely, the under-15 population is forecast to decline by 797,000 to 11.6 million by mid-2032. The pension-age demographic is set to expand by 1.7 million, reaching 13.7 million.
These growth forecasts stand in stark contrast to population contractions observed in Italy, Japan, and China. Germany is similarly expected to experience population decline in the coming years, according to UN demographic forecasts. The ONS emphasises that net migration will remain the exclusive driver of UK population growth over the next quarter-century.
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