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British retail prices experienced a notable decline this month, driven by substantial discounting in furniture and fashion sectors, though the overall rate of price decreases has begun to moderate. Shop prices fell by 0.7 per cent year-on-year in January, showing a less pronounced drop compared to December’s 1 per cent decline, according to joint data from the British Retail Consortium and NielsenIQ.
The non-food category witnessed prices falling by 1.8 per cent year-on-year in January, easing from December’s 2.4 per cent decline when retailers offered Black Friday promotions. Food price inflation demonstrated a marginal improvement, decreasing to 1.6 per cent from the previous month’s 1.8 per cent.
Fresh food inflation showed positive movement, dropping to 0.9 per cent from December’s 1.2 per cent. The ambient foods sector, encompassing tinned goods, dried products and packaged snacks, recorded a 1 per cent month-on-month price increase, primarily driven by sugar products, chocolates and alcoholic beverages.
Industry experts warn these price reductions may be short-lived, as retailers face £7 billion in new costs announced in the recent budget. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, highlighted that increased employer national insurance contributions, a higher national living wage and a new packaging levy are expected to drive prices upward across all sectors.
The Bank of England appears poised to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent at its February meeting, despite projections of strengthening Consumer Price Index inflation in the first half of 2025. This anticipated inflation surge stems from planned increases to the Ofgem energy price cap and various government-controlled prices.
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