UK Wage Growth Sparks Fresh Inflation Concerns as Bank of England Monitors Labour Market

British workers experienced the most rapid real wage expansion in more than three years during the last quarter of 2023, raising concerns about persistent inflation potentially hampering significant interest rate reductions this year.

Official data revealed average earnings, excluding bonuses, climbed by 5.9 per cent from October to December, marking an increase from 5.6 per cent in the preceding quarter. With December’s inflation rate at 2.5 per cent, real pay growth reached 2.5 per cent, achieving its highest level since August 2021. The Resolution Foundation notes that, excluding pandemic-related distortions, wage packets grew at their fastest pace in two decades.

Pay packages including bonuses saw an uptick from 5.5 per cent to 6 per cent, reaching the swiftest growth rate in a year. The Office for National Statistics highlighted private sector leadership in wage growth, with a 6.2 per cent increase in regular earnings. The hospitality and retail sectors demonstrated particularly robust growth at 6.6 per cent.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged the earnings data fell slightly below the Bank’s projections, which had anticipated private sector wages running at 6.3 per cent in the fourth quarter. The Bank maintains that average earnings need to decrease to approximately 2-3 per cent annually to achieve their 2 per cent inflation target.

The labour market displayed resilience, with unemployment holding steady at 4.4 per cent and monthly payrolls increasing by 107,000, surpassing economists’ expectations. Job vacancies declined marginally by 9,000 to 819,000, remaining just above pre-pandemic levels.

The Bank of England’s recent decision to reduce interest rates to 4.5 per cent marked their third cut in six months. However, monetary policy committee members have signalled caution regarding future rate reductions, citing potential inflation increases in 2025. This careful stance reflects ongoing concerns about the delicate balance between supporting economic growth and maintaining price stability.