According to a report by the government’s watchdog on spending, the axing HS2’s 2nd leg will likely mean higher train fares along the west coast mainline between London and Manchester to reduce demand.
Rishi Sunak , who cancelled the work on the high-speed railway north Birmingham in September last year, cited spiralling costs and promised to divert £36bn to other transport projects, including £8bn to fill potholes.
The National Audit Office (NAO), however, said that the move “created uncertainty in a variety of complex areas”, especially as Ltd. and other rail organizations had not been included with the decision.
The new HS2 trains, which will be replacing the older Pendolinos of Avanti on the existing west-coast mainline north Birmingham, are only being built for the London to West Midlands leg.
The report stated that the Department for Transport had intended for HS2 as a solution to the lack of capacity along the line. However, it is possible that the number of seats between Birmingham and Manchester could now be reduced by 17%.
The DfT said it would have to evaluate options to manage the demand by “incentivizing people to travel to different times or not travel by train”.
The costs for winding down and restoring the sites of the cancelled HS2 Phase 2 are likely to be in the region of £100m, and will take at least three years to finish.
The NAO stated that HS2 Ltd. and the DfT also concluded that it is now cheaper to continue with certain works on the line between London and Birmingham which have become outdated than it would be to stop them.
The new Curzon St. station in Birmingham for HS2 is expected to have all seven platforms. However, the number of trains envisaged after Sunak’s cancellation only requires three.
The NAO reported that almost £600m was spent on land and approximately 1,000 properties along the Phase 2 route, which would no longer be required for HS2.
Transport secretary Louise Haigh said, “It has been obvious for a long time that the Conservatives mismanaged the HS2 project and allowed costs to spiral out of control. But this report exposes the extent of their mistakes.”
“We will review the findings of this report, along with our position on HS2 as well as wider transport infrastructure and set out next steps when we are ready.”
The High Speed Rail Group, which represents the engineering and rail companies that had supported the project, stated: “This report makes it clear that the plan the new Labour government inherits – a truncated version of HS2, with a west coast line operating at full capacity – will not help grow the nation’s economy nor allow the train performance to return to acceptable standards on the route.
“A line that fails to reach Central London and worsens bottlenecks north of Birmingham is an inheritance which needs amending.”
The Railway Industry Association stated that the full benefits of the HS2 scheme could only be realized with the entire plan. Its chief executive Darren Caplan said: “With many parts of the planned HS2 project scrapped, there are still problems with a lack in current and future rail capacity along the UK’s North-South railway corridors.
The NAO report released today is a reminder that there is no way to alleviate the congestion in this rail corridor with current capacity. This is unsustainable.
According to HS2 Ltd., the total cost of completing the Phase 1 scheme from London to Birmingham as it is currently constructed will be between £49bn (2019 prices) and £57bn (2019 prices), while the DfT estimates that it will cost £45bn or £54bn. Both are above the current funding envelope of £44.6bn.
According to estimates released by the government last week, HS2 Ltd will spend PS8.7bn in 2023-24 on the project.
HS2 Ltd spokesperson said: This is a project with unprecedented scale and complex, and the cancellation phase 2 has increased cost challenges.
“We will now make sweeping reforms in order to better control costs and deliver the next phase of the program – passing the peak construction between London, and the West Midlands, and beginning the transition to a functioning railway.”
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