American credit card defaults have skyrocketed to their most elevated position since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, signalling a deterioration in the financial wellbeing of lower-income consumers following years of persistent inflation.
Credit card lenders have written off a staggering £46 billion in severely delinquent loan balances during the initial nine months of 2024, marking a 50 per cent increase from the corresponding period in the previous year. This represents the highest level witnessed in 14 years, according to industry data compiled by BankRegData.
The sharp uptick in defaults illustrates the mounting pressure on consumer finances after prolonged periods of high inflation, whilst the Federal Reserve maintains elevated borrowing costs. Capital One, ranked as the third-largest credit card lender in the US, reported its annualised credit card write-off rate reached 6.1 per cent in November, climbing from 5.2 per cent the previous year.
The situation stems from post-pandemic spending patterns, where consumers emerged from lockdowns with substantial savings and eagerness to spend. Credit card providers readily extended credit to customers who might traditionally have fallen short of qualification criteria, based on their temporarily inflated bank balances.
The resultant surge in credit card balances, rising by £270 billion across 2022 and 2023, pushed total US consumer credit card debt beyond £1 trillion for the first time in mid-2023. This expansion, coupled with supply chain disruptions, triggered inflationary pressures that prompted the Federal Reserve to implement significant interest rate increases starting in 2022.
The outlook remains concerning as delinquency rates, often viewed as harbingers of future write-offs, remain nearly a percentage point higher than pre-pandemic averages, despite showing minimal improvement since their peak in July. Market analysts suggest these indicators point towards continued financial strain for consumers in the coming months.
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