Wales faces worklessness crisis as Labour risks collapse in Senedd elections

Wales is currently grappling with a significant worklessness crisis, with 25.6 per cent of its population neither in employment nor actively seeking work—a figure substantially higher than the UK average of 21.1 per cent. The situation is markedly worse among older workers, where 34.1 per cent of people aged between 50 and 64 are classed as economically inactive. This economic malaise is having major political repercussions, with Labour facing a potential collapse in the 2026 Senedd election as both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru gain momentum.

Polls now forecast Nigel Farage’s Reform UK achieving 29 per cent of the Welsh vote, just behind Plaid Cymru at 30 per cent. Labour, which currently holds 27 seats out of 32 in the Senedd, could see its presence slashed to just 11 seats in the new 96-member chamber—a sharp blow to a party that has dominated Welsh politics for decades.

Long-term sickness in ex-coal mining and steelmaking communities is considered a unique factor exacerbating worklessness in Wales. The Health Foundation’s research highlights that the average healthy life expectancy stands at just 60 years in Wales, below England’s 61.7 years. Deindustrialisation has played a critical role, as the closure of coal mines, oil refineries and steelworks over recent decades dismantled the backbone of the Welsh economy, leaving tens of thousands without viable employment prospects.

Dr Jack Price of the Wales Centre for Public Policy observes that for more than 40 years, mass employment in these communities has vanished with little to replace it, resulting in persistent economic and health challenges. Persistent dissatisfaction with health services, lengthy NHS waiting lists and lagging improvements in key public services under Labour rule have deepened public disillusionment. As Professor Laura McAllister of the University of Cardiff notes, Labour, as the political establishment in Wales, is facing the full force of voter discontent.

The approaching by-election in Caerphilly on 23 October stands as a litmus test for whether Reform UK can broaden its appeal in Wales. The party recently welcomed its first Senedd member, Laura Anne Jones, who defected from the Conservatives and claims Reform UK can bring new hope to the nation. Labour, conscious of these threats, has begun rolling out £10 million worth of DWP-funded trailblazer programmes in Denbighshire, Blaenau Gwent and Neath Port Talbot to provide employment support. The effectiveness of these initiatives, however, remains uncertain given the depth of ill health and limited job opportunities in affected areas.

Samuel Kurtz, Welsh shadow economic secretary, believes addressing economic inactivity requires fostering entrepreneurship and backing local businesses. He argues that higher taxation under Labour, particularly the recent National Insurance levy, has further constrained key sectors like tourism, hospitality and agriculture. Wales’ employment rate now sits at a debilitating 70.8 per cent, noticeably trailing the UK average of 75.2 per cent.

Dissatisfaction is palpable, with many Welsh residents voicing anger at the state of both public services and the economy. With Labour’s majorities dwindling and new political forces gaining ground, Wales stands at a crossroads as the next election approaches.