Western airlines are significantly reducing flights to China due to several factors, including low demand, high costs related to flying around Russian airspace, and growing competition from Chinese carriers. Recently, British Airways announced it would suspend flights between London and Beijing starting in October, shortly after Virgin Atlantic decided to discontinue its only route to Shanghai. Similarly, Australia’s Qantas, although not impacted by the Russian airspace ban, cut its Sydney-to-Shanghai route last month, citing instances of planes flying with low occupancy.
This trend reflects a changing perspective among some of the world’s major airlines regarding China, which was once viewed as a promising growth market before the COVID-19 pandemic. Flight numbers fell dramatically during the pandemic, and even though airlines began to restore their schedules after borders reopened in 2023, they are now signaling a new retreat.
The closure of Russian airspace has played a crucial role in rendering these routes unviable for many airlines. In 2022, Russia prohibited US and European airlines from flying over its territory, leading to longer flight paths and increased fuel costs, which represent a significant portion of operating expenses. This situation has placed Western airlines at a competitive disadvantage compared to Chinese carriers that can still operate over Russia.
According to industry data from OAG, the number of flights by international carriers from Europe and North America to China during the busy summer season has decreased by more than 60% compared to a peak in 2018. In contrast, Chinese airlines have only reduced their flights on these routes by 30% from their peak in 2019 and currently operate more than twice as many services as their Western counterparts.
While the US government recently agreed to increase the number of direct round-trip flights between the US and China, these numbers still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. US airlines have urged Washington not to raise the cap further, as they find it challenging to compete with Chinese carriers. As Chinese airlines gain significant market share on routes to Western Europe, they are also looking to maximize the use of their widebody aircraft amid declining domestic demand due to slower economic growth in China.
Some experts believe that the rise in flights to Europe by Chinese carriers aligns with Beijing’s initiatives to attract international visitors. However, the decreasing interest in travel between China and the West may also reflect the broader geopolitical tensions that have escalated since 2019, according to one Western aviation executive.
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