Why the Cost of Chocolate Keeps Rising in the UK

Take a stroll into your local newsagent and the rising cost of food will hit you squarely in the wallet. A 360g bar of Dairy Milk now commands a price of around £5, representing a 25 percent increase since September 2023. The once humble chocolate bar is becoming a benchmark for wider food price inflation in Britain, reflecting turbulent forces reshaping the grocery sector.

The reasons for the relentless rise in chocolate prices are manifold. Cocoa prices have more than doubled over the past two years, reaching £4,500 per tonne after years of stability below £2,000. At the start of the year, the commodity even touched a record high of £9,100 per tonne. West African nations, notably Ghana and the Ivory Coast, have suffered poor harvests due to extreme weather, squeezing global production. Such volatility has forced manufacturers to raise prices, reduce bar sizes, or change recipes to manage costs.

Yet, weather is not acting alone. A suite of domestic policy changes is compounding the cost pressures. The introduction of a net zero packaging tax and increases in both employer National Insurance and the minimum wage have squeezed food producers and retailers, adding nearly £7 billion in extra costs. The British Retail Consortium suggests these factors will keep food prices elevated for months to come.

The impact is not confined to chocolate. Prices of other essential foods have surged over the past year: beef, milk and butter are up by 26.5 percent, 12 percent, and 17.5 percent respectively. Biscuit giant McVitie’s, for instance, has diluted the cocoa content in Penguin and Club bars so extensively that some products can no longer be defined as chocolate. Even the slogans on wrappers have shifted to reflect the change in recipe focus.

Supermarkets are struggling to absorb these additional costs. Bosses warn that further tax rises could push supermarket prices even higher. The new Extended Producer Responsibility scheme, intended to streamline waste management, is expected to add up to 18p per bottle of spirits and 12p per bottle of wine, while the Bank of England estimates the initiative could nudge food inflation up by 0.5 percent. Such increases land squarely on consumers’ weekly shopping bills.

While headline inflation remained steady at 3.8 percent in September, food inflation continues to race ahead at 4.5 percent, starkly higher than the pre-pandemic average of just 0.1 percent from 2015 to 2019. Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledges the political danger of sustained inflation, particularly in groceries, and is considering measures to relieve pressure on lower-income families. Nonetheless, these initiatives are expected to do little to abate the rising price of everyday indulgences like Dairy Milk, leaving chocolate lovers to swallow the bitter taste of higher prices.