Bank of England Admits Inflation Forecasting Failures

>The Bank of England has acknowledged that inflation has consistently exceeded its forecasts over the past five years, raising concerns about its forecasting accuracy. An internal review revealed that inflation surpassed one of the Bank’s predictions by more than eight percentage points at the end of 2022, primarily due to a substantial increase in gas prices following the invasion of Ukraine.

Economic modelling conducted by the Bank’s economists indicated that the energy crisis accounted for approximately half, or four percentage points, of the inflation forecasting error. This revelation aligns with criticisms that the Bank was slow to recognise inflationary pressures emerging between 2021 and 2023; as a result, interest rates did not rise promptly to mitigate escalating prices.

Inflation reached a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, prompting the central bank to increase interest rates from near zero to 5.25% in less than two years. However, rates have since been reduced to 3.75%, following four quarter-point cuts last year.

In its review, the Bank also cited stronger-than-expected global export prices as contributing factors to the inflation forecasting errors. These were linked to disruptions in global supply chains as economies reopened after Covid-19 restrictions, alongside robust consumer demand and rising energy costs.

Addressing recommendations from Ben Bernanke, a former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank plans to enhance transparency by regularly identifying and publicly explaining its forecasting errors. This report represents a step towards improving accountability in its economic forecasting processes.

Between August 2021 and August 2025, the Bank found that inflation data often overshot two and three-year projections. This trend has been attributed to heightened wage growth and increased inflation expectations resulting from rising living costs. It is believed that these factors significantly influenced unexpected price growth after the energy crisis had eased.

Following additional recommendations, the Bank of England now publishes various forecasting scenarios that account for both lower and higher-than-anticipated inflation. Economic projections released in May and November 2025 included these scenarios in efforts to improve its forecasting capabilities and better inform policymakers.

Recent forecasts indicate that inflation might approach the Bank’s 2% target by the spring, attributed to a decline in household energy bills. However, inflation rose to 3.4% on an annual basis in December, from 3.2% the previous month, marking the first increase since July. Financial markets predict a possible reduction in interest rates, with estimates suggesting they may be cut to 3.25% this year.

Additionally, the Bank concluded that its GDP growth forecasts have tended to underestimate actual growth by about 0.5 percentage points. Measures implemented to support households during the cost-of-living crisis helped limit the decline in household incomes, albeit at a significant fiscal cost.