The three largest state-owned Chinese airlines are aggressively expanding their European routes, capitalising on their unique advantage of unrestricted access to Russian airspace. This strategic expansion comes as Western carriers retreat from Chinese routes due to mounting operational costs and airspace restrictions.
Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern have significantly increased their passenger capacity to Western Europe, showing an 18% rise compared to pre-pandemic levels. Their scheduled flights to the UK, Spain, and Italy have surged between 25% and 45% in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to 2019 figures.
The competitive edge stems from these carriers’ ability to traverse Russian airspace, whilst Western airlines face restrictions imposed by Moscow following sanctions related to the Ukraine conflict. This advantage translates to shorter flight times and reduced fuel costs, enabling Chinese carriers to offer fares up to 35% lower than their European counterparts.
European airlines have voiced concerns about this uneven playing field. Lufthansa, forced to cancel its historic Frankfurt-Beijing route, exemplifies the shifting competitive landscape. The German carrier argues that Chinese airlines benefit from lower operational costs and substantial government support.
Despite their expanding market share, these Chinese carriers face significant financial challenges. The three airlines posted combined losses of ¥13.3 billion ($1.8 billion) amidst China’s uneven post-pandemic recovery. Industry analysts from HSBC and DBS predict continued losses for Air China and China Eastern through 2024.
The expansion appears to align with Beijing’s strategic objectives to boost tourism and international connectivity, even as domestic competition intensifies and premium travel demand remains subdued. The airlines’ state ownership provides them with substantial credit facilities and route subsidies, enabling their continued expansion despite operational losses.
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