Global copper surplus set to triple as refined output accelerates

The international copper market is poised for a significant shift in supply dynamics, with the global refined copper surplus expected to more than triple next year. The International Copper Study Group predicts that production growth will outpace consumption, resulting in an excess of 368,000 tonnes in 2027. This represents a substantial increase from the 104,000 tonnes surplus forecast for the current year. The projected excess for next year equates to approximately 1.3% of total global consumption, with refined output estimated at 29.7 million tonnes against usage of 29.3 million tonnes.

This widening surplus is driven by a marked acceleration in refined production growth, which is forecast to reach 3.4% in 2027, up from just 0.4% this year. This rate of expansion exceeds the projected consumption growth of 2.5%. The rebound in supply is supported by several factors, including the ramping up of smelters and refineries in Indonesia, India and the European Union. Additionally, improved operating rates in Chile and increased production from scrap sources are contributing to the higher output levels. The outlook indicates a growing excess of refined metal even as disruptions at major mines continue to restrict the supply of copper concentrate required by smelters. However, recovering mine output and growing scrap production are expected to alleviate these constraints in the coming year.

The 2026 surplus estimate has been revised slightly upwards to 104,000 tonnes from the 96,000 tonnes projected in April, while the forecast for next year remains broadly consistent with earlier outlooks. World copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.3% this year, a figure down from the 1.6% projected in April due to downward revisions in output from Chile, China and Indonesia. Growth is being supported by ramp-ups at several key sites, including Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, Amman Mineral Internasional’s Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia and Russian Copper’s Malmyz mine in Russia.

Further contributions to production come from expansions at Zijin Mining’s Julong mine in China and Ural Mining and Metallurgical’s Svyatogor operations in Russia. Higher output is also seen at Peru’s Antamina, which is jointly owned by BHP, Glencore, Teck Resources and Mitsubishi, as well as from the processing of stockpiled ore at First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama. Despite these gains, production remains constrained at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, following incidents in 2025. Declining output from Chilean mines is also limiting global growth. Refined copper production from scrap is forecast to increase by about 4.7% in 2027, while primary refined output from mined copper is expected to rise by around 3%.

On the demand side, global refined copper usage is projected to increase by 1.5% this year and 2.5% next year, with Asia remaining the primary driver of growth. China, which accounts for 59% of global refined copper consumption, is expected to increase apparent usage by 2.5% this year, while usage across the rest of the world remains essentially unchanged. The ICSG lowered its 2026 consumption growth outlook slightly from April, citing weaker expectations for the Middle East, North America and the European Union, with demand in Japan also expected to remain subdued. Future consumption growth should benefit from improved global economic activity and new or expanded plants producing semi-finished copper products such as wire, tube and sheet. However, the forecasts remain vulnerable to supply disruptions and geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, which could impact both production and consumption.