EU Fuel Crisis Deepens as Last Middle East Shipments Reach European Shores

The European Union has called on citizens to reduce their use of private vehicles and to limit air travel, as the final consignments of diesel and jet fuel from the Middle East complete their journeys to European ports. The warning signals a significant escalation in the continent’s energy predicament, with industry analysts cautioning that acute shortages of jet fuel could materialise within the next four weeks.

Dan Jørgensen, the EU’s energy commissioner, struck an unambiguous note of alarm following a meeting with EU ministers, describing the situation as an economic disaster with no foreseeable resolution. His call for emergency demand-reduction measures echoed the bloc’s response to the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which included an EU-wide gas price cap, windfall taxes on energy producers, and binding targets to reduce gas consumption. “We don’t know how long this crisis will last,” Jørgensen stated. “And since we don’t know how deep it will be, we are also preparing different opportunities and possibilities that look more like the ones we used under the crisis in 2022.”

The picture in the United Kingdom presents a marked contrast in tone, if not necessarily in underlying risk. With regional elections approaching, the British government has urged the public to continue their daily routines, insisting that road fuel supplies remain diverse and resilient, and that jet fuel shipments continue to arrive from India, the United States, and the Netherlands. However, this reassuring messaging sits uneasily alongside the assessments of independent market analysts, who suggest the UK’s exposure is substantial and its window for securing alternative supplies is narrowing rapidly.

The scale of the UK’s vulnerability is most acute in the jet fuel market, where more than 75 per cent of supply is imported, with approximately 60 per cent of that historically sourced from the Middle East, principally Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The country’s last confirmed jet fuel shipment from Saudi Arabia is set to arrive aboard the Libyan-flagged tanker Maetiga this Thursday, having loaded in the Red Sea. Surging prices in Asian markets are already diverting subsequent tanker traffic eastward, raising serious doubts about the reliability of further Red Sea loadings.

At Rotterdam, the tanker STI Sloane is expected to deliver a diesel cargo on 10 April, with the Rong Lin Wan scheduled to follow days later carrying jet fuel. Thereafter, the pipeline of Gulf supply goes dark. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen imminently, analysts estimate it would take one to two months to restart regional refineries and reconstitute tanker movements at scale.

Emma Howsham, a refinery and oil market analyst at Wood Mackenzie, has projected a jet fuel deficit of 200,000 barrels per day across Europe during April, representing nearly a quarter of total continental demand. She noted that the price environment had already prompted the unusual step of importing jet fuel from the United States, and warned that sustained elevated prices would ultimately result in demand destruction, the point at which consumers and businesses abandon fuel-intensive activities due to prohibitive cost.

JP Morgan has offered an equally sobering assessment, drawing a parallel with the sequential nature of pandemic-era supply disruptions. The bank’s analysts wrote that the shock was unfolding “westward, dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories,” and that Europe was likely to feel the full impact by mid-April as the last February loadings arrive without replacement cargoes behind them.

The uncertainty extends to cargoes already at sea. Benedict George, head of product pricing at Argus Media, cautioned that tankers expected between 5 and 15 April had not yet confirmed their destinations, as vessels frequently change course at the last minute in response to superior offers. One tanker under close watch is the Yasa Hawk, which loaded jet fuel in the Red Sea and is currently navigating the Mediterranean without a posted destination, a common indicator that its owners are holding out for a more attractive bid.

George Shaw, an analyst at Kpler, predicted that flight cancellations and outright route cancellations would follow, stating that US and Atlantic production capacity would be insufficient to prevent a drawdown in European jet fuel stocks during April. On diesel, Shaw acknowledged that significant volumes could be sourced from the US and Europe, though he emphasised that elevated prices would persist regardless. Mick Strautman of consultancy Vortexa added that diesel supply security from the US faced growing pressure due to competing demand from Latin America and South Africa, rendering the UK’s position on both fuel types more precarious than official statements suggest.

At the retail level, supply stress is already visible. Forecourts operated by supermarkets including Asda, Morrisons, and Tesco in Skegness ran dry over the weekend, as motorists sought out pump prices some 7.55 pence per litre cheaper than those at independent garages. The Automobile Association noted that the price differential, which has widened by 1.5 pence relative to the previous week, is concentrating demand pressure on supermarket sites precisely during the peak weekend refuelling period. Signs reading “no fuel” have appeared at petrol stations across England, from Wiltshire and Worcestershire to Durham, as well as in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The commercial sector is absorbing the impact with growing concern. Business groups report that a majority of UK companies are already experiencing higher operating costs as a result of elevated fuel prices stemming from the conflict in Iran. Manufacturers are understood to be particularly frustrated by what they perceive as an inadequate appreciation within government of the genuine supply risk. Nonetheless, most executives have not yet moved to implement remote working mandates, fuel stockpiling, or formal contingency planning, suggesting that corporate responses remain reactive rather than strategic at this stage.

The UK consumes approximately 61 million tonnes of oil products annually. Diesel accounts for the largest share at 23 million tonnes, with jet fuel and petrol each contributing a further 12 million tonnes. The remaining volume comprises heating oil and other specialist fuels. The breadth of that dependency underscores the systemic nature of the challenge that both policymakers and market participants now face, as the last Middle Eastern cargoes dock and the question of what follows them remains, for now, unanswered.