European diesel imports hit record low as China halts fuel exports

Europe’s diesel supply crisis has intensified, with imports reaching a record low for September amid a suspension of fuel exports by China and continued constraints on Russian supplies. The situation has prompted President Donald Trump to demand that Germany and France release 120 million barrels of diesel from their strategic storage reserves or face a US export ban on diesel. This development underscores the growing vulnerability of import-dependent European nations to global supply shocks, particularly as the continent struggles to secure adequate volumes of a critical fuel for heavy machinery, agriculture, and freight transport.

According to a report by Vortexa, diesel imports into Europe last month stood at just one million barrels per day, marking the lowest September total on record. This figure represents a decline of 600,000 barrels per day compared to September 2025. Vortexa analyst Mick Strauttman noted that diesel on the water pointed to Europe is more than 25% below last year’s levels, indicating that October is likely to see another month of weak arrivals. The tightening market has also affected domestic production, with refinery runs across the continent down by 600,000 barrels per day from August. While some maintenance was delayed to ensure supply, Strauttman warned that this strategy has already led to unplanned outages, which could further interfere with Europe’s domestic fuel production capabilities.

The price impact of these supply constraints has been significant. Gasoline prices in the European Union have risen by approximately 29% since the start of the year, while diesel fuel prices have surged by 40%. European Central Bank officials had previously expected diesel margins to peak this month, following peak gasoline margins in August. However, the recent imposition of a fuel export ban by China, which has also led to the cancellation of gasoline and jet fuel shipments by Chinese refiners, suggests that these predictions may not materialise. The US, the largest foreign fuel supplier to most of Europe, has become a central factor in the crisis, with President Trump leveraging US diesel exports to pressure European nations to release their stored reserves.

Structural factors have exacerbated Europe’s dependence on imports. Decades of policy incentives, including tax advantages, have left the European vehicle fleet far more diesel-heavy than regions like the United States. As a result, the EU is structurally long on gasoline, which it exports, and short on diesel, which it must import. Additionally, efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have led to the closure of 30 out of 100 refineries across the bloc since 2009. This loss of a third of refining capacity has made Europe even more reliant on fuel imports. Germany and France hold about 35% of the EU’s strategic diesel reserves, with the bloc estimated to hold about 39 million tons of diesel, equivalent to more than two months’ consumption.

Analysts suggest there is no quick or slow fix for the current situation. France and Germany are expected to release diesel from storage, as recent history indicates that the US may enforce export bans despite advice to the contrary. Even without a US ban, imports are insufficient to cover for shrinking supply elsewhere in the world. The situation is likely to remain difficult until fuel exports from the Persian Gulf pick up, as tanker trackers currently report only recovering crude flows, with fuel exports yet to recover.