Flight Bookings Between Canada and US Plummet Amid Tariff War

Air passenger travel between Canada and the United States is facing a dramatic downturn as flight bookings have decreased by over 70%. This startling trend comes in the context of escalating trade tensions initiated by Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Recent data released by aviation analytics firm OAG highlights these sobering statistics, revealing a stark reduction in the demand for cross-border flights.

In the months spanning from March 2024 to March 2025, bookings for trans-border flights are reported to be down by 71% to 76%. The impact of these declines is particularly visible during peak travel months of July and August, when airlines are cutting capacity by as much as 3.5%. More than 320,000 seats have been removed from flights operating between the two countries through to the end of October 2025. This significant reduction reflects a response to plummeting demand as potential travellers hesitate to make bookings.

The decrease in travel is attributed not only to tariff-related uncertainties but also to broader concerns among Canadian citizens regarding their safety when travelling to the US. High-profile incidents involving the detention of foreign visitors by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have compounded fears, making many Canadians more apprehensive about crossing the border.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has condemned the recent tariffs imposed by Trump, characterising them as a direct assault on Canadian workers. The implications of this trade dispute are profound, and airlines, particularly Air Canada which operates the largest network of routes between these countries, may need to consider drastic operational changes to adapt to the new reality.

The continuing decline in Canadian travel to the US raises pressing questions about the future of trans-border aviation. With such substantial drops in both passenger bookings and available flight capacity, a recalibration of strategies for airlines appears inevitable as they navigate the stormy waters of evolving US-Canada relations.