National Gas confirms adequate winter supply despite storage decline

National Gas has confirmed that the United Kingdom possesses sufficient gas supply to meet forecast demand throughout the upcoming winter season. The gas system operator stated in its 2026 Gas Winter Outlook that positive supply margins are expected to be maintained, even under high stress scenarios. This assessment is made despite a significant twenty-one percentage point drop in winter gas storage levels compared to 2023. The operator emphasises that gas will continue to play a critical role in maintaining energy security, particularly when renewable generation output falls.

Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, noted that analysis indicates Great Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply capability to meet demand throughout the 2026 and 2027 winter period. He highlighted that as the electricity system becomes increasingly reliant on weather-dependent renewable generation, the flexibility and reliability provided by gas remain essential for keeping the lights on when renewable output is low. The operator’s forecast is based on the lower end of the historical range, reflecting the impact of Centrica ceasing to fill the Rough gas storage facility last year.

UK gas storage levels were recorded at seventy-two percent full ahead of the cold snap in January, a significant decrease from the ninety-three percent recorded in 2023. Consequently, National Gas has predicated its forecasts on a lower historical baseline of sixty-five percent. In 2025, Centrica warned that the United Kingdom holds some of the lowest levels of gas storage in Europe, with an average of twelve days of supply compared to one hundred and twenty-three days in the Netherlands. Overall gas demand is forecast to remain relatively stable, falling by one percent compared to the previous winter.

Peak gas demand for power generation is expected to rise by seven percent this winter. On a one in twenty winter day, peak gas demand is forecast to increase by around two percent to four hundred and ninety-three million cubic metres per day. This increase is driven by higher expected demand for gas-fired power, with National Gas predicting that gas-fired power generation could reach a full peak of twenty-seven gigawatts on days of peak demand. The operator stated that supplies will continue to be underpinned by the UK Continental Shelf and Norwegian imports, supported by liquefied natural gas, storage, and continental interconnectors.

Gas from the UK Continental Shelf is forecast to decline by five percent, continuing a downward trend, while liquefied natural gas imports are expected to increase by about six percent. Energy minister Michael Shanks stated in parliament that the recently approved Jackdaw project will strengthen the UK’s energy security and meet six percent of the country’s consumption at peak demand. Although the project is expected to run for only eleven years, energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh has indicated it could start producing gas for this year’s winter months. National Gas has urged the government to progress its Gas System in Transition programme to safeguard future energy security, noting that external events and geopolitical disruptions could still influence the gas market.