Novo shares fall as investor reaction to 2030 strategy remains cautious

Shares in the pharmaceutical group Novo declined at the open of trading on 21 September, despite the company outlining an ambitious five-year commercial strategy aimed at restoring growth. The Copenhagen-listed firm presented a roadmap at its Capital Markets Day that targets the launch of more than five multi-blockbuster products by 2030. This ambition is paired with a financial goal to generate more than 150 billion Danish kroner, equivalent to approximately 23 billion US dollars, in sales over the same period. The strategy is designed to demonstrate to investors the breadth of the company’s pipeline beyond its current flagship products.

The move follows a period in which Novo has lagged behind rival Eli Lilly in the cardiometabolic market. While the injectable versions of semaglutide, marketed as Wegovy and Ozempic, generated around 7.8 billion US dollars in global sales in the second quarter, Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, sold under the brands Zepbound and Mounjaro, reached just under 15 billion US dollars in the same period. Novo’s strategy seeks to close this gap by diversifying its portfolio and scaling capacity to support new treatments. The company aims to deliver a compound annual growth rate in revenue for the 2026 to 2030 period that is in line with industry peers.

On the same day as the investor event, Novo received positive clinical data for its next-generation obesity treatment, CagriSema. A Phase III trial known as REIMAGINE 5 evaluated the drug, which combines cagrilintide and semaglutide, against a lower dose of tirzepatide. The results showed that CagriSema delivered superior weight loss in adults with overweight and obesity. Although the drug has previously faced setbacks in clinical trials, this readout is viewed as a significant win. However, analysts remain focused on upcoming studies that will compare CagriSema against the highest dose of tirzepatide to fully assess its competitive position.

Novo’s wider pipeline diversification initiative includes plans to have more than five Phase III programmes in obesity and diabetes by 2030, alongside more than five in other therapy areas. The company is also expanding into metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, having acquired Akero Therapeutics for 5.2 billion US dollars in October 2025. CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar has stated that bolt-on acquisitions will remain a key avenue for boosting pipeline offerings. Additionally, the company aims to serve ten times the number of people with obesity using its oral version of Wegovy, which received US approval in December 2025.

The market reaction to the strategy was negative, with shares dropping 5 per cent at the open. The share price has fallen more than 70 per cent since its peak in mid-2024, a period during which Novo was briefly the most valuable company in Europe. Citi analysts noted in a research report that the event offered little to change their cautious view, citing mid-single-digit growth ambitions that align with consensus. They also highlighted that while management focused on bolt-on acquisitions, the possibility of a large transaction was not ruled out, creating inherent risk.

The share price movement was further influenced by the disclosure that Novo reduced its workforce by 13,000 staff over the past year. The strategic announcement follows a busy week for the company, which included a major rebrand on 14 September. While legally known as Novo Nordisk, the group will now operate solely under the name Novo in its day-to-day activities. The company also announced partnerships with AI firm Anthropic and Orbis Medicines, the latter of which is worth up to 1.4 billion US dollars and is expected to contribute to pipeline diversity.