OPEC forecasts sixfold surge in global oil demand growth for 2027

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has projected a dramatic acceleration in global oil consumption, with demand growth expected to increase more than sixfold between 2026 and 2027. According to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report, annual demand growth is forecast to rise from 380,000 barrels per day this year to 2.36 million barrels per day next year. This significant shift marks a sharp departure from the modest increases anticipated for the current period, highlighting a substantial change in the global energy outlook.

The cartel adjusted its short-term expectations in its September report, trimming the 2026 demand-growth forecast. Total global consumption for this year is now estimated at 105.84 million barrels per day. In contrast, OPEC has raised its projections for 2027, with global demand expected to reach 108.19 million barrels per day. This upward revision for next year underscores the organisation’s view that market dynamics will shift considerably in the coming twelve months, driven by specific regional factors.

The most pronounced changes are expected in Asian markets. OPEC anticipates that Chinese oil demand will remain nearly flat in 2026, with growth of only 10,000 barrels per day, keeping consumption at 16.90 million barrels per day. However, for 2027, the organisation expects China to add 380,000 barrels per day to its demand, lifting total consumption to 17.28 million barrels per day. India is projected to show an even sharper increase, with demand growth pegged at 60,000 barrels per day in 2026 before jumping to an additional 400,000 barrels per day in 2027, raising Indian consumption to 6.11 million barrels per day.

In the developed world, the trend is initially negative before reversing. OECD demand is expected to shrink by 110,000 barrels per day this year. OPEC has forecast 430,000 barrels per day of growth for 2027, with increases spread across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific. However, non-OECD countries will account for the majority of next year’s total increase. Their combined demand growth is set to accelerate from 490,000 barrels per day in 2026 to 1.92 million barrels per day in 2027. China, India and the rest of Asia are expected to contribute nearly 1.2 million barrels per day of that total rise.

Consequently, the demand for crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation will see a significant increase. OPEC expects this demand to rise from 42.2 million barrels per day in 2026 to 43.9 million barrels per day in 2027, representing an increase of approximately 1.6 million barrels per day. The organisation has repeatedly lowered its 2026 demand-growth forecast throughout the year, setting a distinct contrast to the robust growth now projected for 2027.