Prediction Markets Trump Crypto and New Forms of Gambling Shake Up Betting Sector 2025

Donald Trump continues to expand his business interests into emerging technologies, now launching a prediction market platform that capitalises on the growing popularity of crypto-driven wagering. Trump Media and Technology Group recently unveiled Truth Predict, a prediction exchange where participants can stake crypto on outcomes ranging from elections to financial markets and sports events.

Prediction markets function as betting platforms, offering straightforward binary yes or no wagers on an extensive array of events. Their meteoric rise in the United States over the past year has unsettled traditional gambling and finance sectors. The world’s largest such market, Polymarket, was founded by Shayne Coplan, now recognised as the youngest self-made billionaire globally. During the 2024 presidential election, more than $3.6 billion was risked on Polymarket, with an individual known only as the “French Whale” reportedly winning $85 million by accurately predicting the contest’s outcome.

Kalshi is another significant entrant, launched by former Goldman Sachs trader Tarek Mansour, providing the facility to stake on political and financial outcomes. Kalshi recently forged a partnership with CNN to supply prediction data for political coverage, positioning itself in the mainstream. Robinhood, the financial technology firm valued at $100 billion, has reported prediction markets as its fastest-growing revenue line within a year of launching such products; Robinhood claims over nine billion contracts traded by more than one million users, contributing to significant share price appreciation.

Operationally, prediction markets distinguish themselves from bookmakers. While traditional firms profit when customers lose, prediction platforms derive revenue through commissions on trades, not on the outcomes themselves. As such, they act more as exchanges, with participants wagering against each other. This model is compared to the Lloyd’s of London insurance marketplace, where risks are traded based on collective belief and information about possible future events.

Experts argue that these markets embody efficient market theory, with pricing reflecting all available information and aggregated beliefs. The data generated by prediction markets may offer greater accuracy than opinion polling and academic forecasting, particularly when real capital is risked. This has driven some climate scientists and financial analysts to adopt real-money prediction models for forecasting complex events, including weather and geopolitical outcomes.

In the United Kingdom, prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi and Robinhood’s offerings are not accessible to residents, as they require US social security credentials and are not licensed locally. However, Robinhood has reportedly held early-stage discussions with regulators at the Financial Conduct Authority regarding potential UK expansion. Industry insiders suggest that if these platforms were to launch in Britain, they would face the same stringent regulation as traditional gambling companies, given the similarities in their services.

Sports betting represents the principal driver of volumes on these exchanges, comprising around 90 percent of activity on Kalshi. Were new entrants to enter the UK, they would compete with entrenched betting exchanges such as Betfair, William Hill and Ladbrokes, presenting formidable obstacles for market penetration. Nonetheless, the rising influence of prediction markets is evident; they commoditise information and potentially disrupt traditional betting by transforming how forecasts and opinions are monetised. With increasing celebrity backing, including engagement by members of the Trump family, the sector’s growth trajectory suggests a significant shift in the gambling and financial markets landscape may be imminent.