Retail growth slows as shoppers brace for Autumn Budget

British retail sales recorded sluggish growth in the twelve months to September as consumer caution intensified ahead of the upcoming Autumn Budget. Total sales at retailers rose by 1.3 per cent, a significant deceleration from the 2.3 per cent increase recorded in the same period last year. The British Retail Consortium and KPMG highlighted that while high street firms are currently absorbing cost increases, they lack the resilience to withstand a fiscal package that introduces higher taxes.

Food sales were the primary driver of overall retail spending, expanding by 2.5 per cent. However, this figure remains well below the 4.3 per cent rise seen in September of the previous year and trails the 3.1 per cent twelve-month average. Non-food sales were broadly flat, growing by just 0.3 per cent against a yearly average of 0.2 per cent. Within the non-food sector, health and beauty recorded its strongest month of the year, aided by Pokemon’s 30th anniversary products and branded trading cards which boosted toy sales. Conversely, fashion dragged on overall growth, with analysts suggesting that prolonged summer temperatures may have delayed the seasonal switch to autumn and winter wardrobes.

Industry leaders warn that pre-Budget tax speculation is weighing on household finances and translating into weaker spending. Linda Ellet, head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, noted that consumers are becoming increasingly selective amid fears that the Iran war is driving inflation. She described the current market as a battle for share of wallet, where shoppers prioritise certain categories while postponing others, particularly with the Black Friday promotional period approaching. Sarah Bradbury, chief executive of IGD, added that while Halloween may support short-term impulse grocery sales, food businesses are focused on the Budget’s impact on consumer spending power and business costs heading into 2027.

Retailers have urged Chancellor John Healey to avoid a warehouse tax and instead exempt high street businesses from the highest business rates multiplier. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, argued that the Chancellor cannot promise to ease the cost of living while simultaneously increasing costs for retailers. She warned that another rise in business rates would push up prices, choke off high-street investment and put local jobs at risk, urging the government to support retail investment and employment rather than making it harder.