Ryanair Warns of Summer Flight Cancellations Amid Iran War Fuel Crisis

Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has issued a stark warning that the airline may be forced to cancel flights this summer, as the ongoing war in Iran raises serious concerns over the security of jet fuel supplies to Britain and the wider European aviation sector.

Speaking candidly about the scale of the threat, O’Leary indicated that Ryanair could manage near-term fuel price increases, but that any material disruption to supply volumes would force the carrier, alongside its peers, to reduce capacity. “We can handle, we think, the pricing issue, but if there’s a risk to 10 or 20pc of the fuel supply in June or July or August, then we and all other airlines will have to start looking at cancelling some flights or taking some capacity out,” he said.

O’Leary confirmed he has received assurances that fuel supplies will remain stable through to mid-to-late May, but cautioned that a prolonged conflict extending into the summer months could place those assurances under severe strain. He is currently holding daily calls with Ryanair’s fuel procurement team, with the airline reviewing its operating schedule on a weekly basis.

The broader crisis stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately one fifth of global oil supply ordinarily passes. The disruption has caused jet fuel prices to more than double, with supply concerns now compounding the pricing pressure. Jet fuel requires a more oil-intensive refining process than petrol or diesel, making it particularly exposed to upstream supply shocks of this nature.

The scale of disruption across the global aviation industry is already significant. Thousands of flights have been cancelled as a consequence of the conflict, with closures of key Middle Eastern travel hubs adding further operational complexity. Korean Air chief executive Woo Kee-hong told staff this week that the airline had entered “emergency mode,” while German carrier Lufthansa has drawn up contingency plans that could see up to 40 aircraft grounded, representing approximately 5pc of its total fleet capacity.

O’Leary identified the United Kingdom as the most vulnerable European nation in the current environment, citing the country’s pronounced reliance on Kuwaiti jet fuel, which accounts for roughly 25pc of UK aviation fuel supply. This stands in contrast to the position of many continental peers, whose supply chains are more geographically diversified. The UK’s last known inbound shipment of jet fuel from Saudi Arabia is expected to arrive imminently, with only a handful of Middle Eastern fuel cargoes currently en route to British shores.

The divergence in official response between the European Union and the UK government has drawn attention. The EU has urged citizens to reduce both air and road travel as a conservation measure, and has called on member state governments to consider emergency fuel protocols. UK ministers, by contrast, have maintained that domestic supplies remain adequate, urging the public to continue their normal routines.

O’Leary dismissed the prospect of fuel rationing but was unequivocal in his view that, should shortages materialise, Ryanair would have limited discretion in determining which routes to cut. The carrier’s response would instead be driven by supply conditions at individual airports, rather than any strategic route prioritisation.

Ryanair has already felt the operational impact of the conflict directly, having cancelled its 12 daily services to Jordan following the outbreak of hostilities. The airline has, however, recorded an unexpected commercial benefit: passengers who had originally planned Easter holidays to the Middle East or long-haul itineraries routed through Gulf hubs have pivoted towards European short-haul travel, lifting Ryanair’s Easter period bookings by approximately 5pc.

Despite the turbulence, Ryanair is pressing ahead with its growth agenda. The carrier has announced five new routes from London, including services to the Italian cities of Forlì and Parma, as well as to Glasgow, Malmö in Sweden, and Wrocław in Poland. The airline has also raised its annual passenger target to 216 million, an increase of eight million on the prior year’s figure, signalling that management retains confidence in underlying demand even as the near-term supply environment remains precarious.