Record ship attacks in Strait of Hormuz slow oil exports

The number of vessels reporting attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz has reached a record high, according to an analysis of data from a United Kingdom maritime agency. Twelve ships were struck between 5 and 11 October, marking the largest number of weekly incidents reported to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency since the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran began. This figure exceeds the ten vessels that reported attacks during the preceding week. The peak in violence occurred on Sunday, when six ships were hit, setting a new single-day record. Four further attacks have been reported so far this week.

As the frequency of strikes has increased, the recovery in oil shipments through the waterway observed in the previous month has slowed, industry data indicates. BBC Verify compiled incident reports published by the UK Maritime Trade Operations on its website to create a timeline based on the first date cited in each report. This timeline is approximate because some incidents reference the date of the attack while others cite the date of reporting. Experts state that Tehran has been targeting ships in an effort to assert greater control over the waterway. This strategy comes as the US military has increased the number of tankers it is escorting through the southern part of the strait to avoid Iranian strikes. Analysts also note that Iran is carrying out more attacks on vessels located further away from the Strait of Hormuz.

The US military’s Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East, stated on social media that commercial traffic continues to flow through the strait with coordinated protection from US forces and regional partners. However, verified footage captured the aftermath of one of Sunday’s attacks, showing the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin on fire. The vessel was struck by a drone close to the Sohar Anchorage in Oman, a location more than 250 kilometres from the strait, according to the maritime intelligence firm Vanguard. Eleven Indian seafarers were rescued, but two remain missing, according to the Forward Seamen’s Union of India.

Attacks have continued into the current week. The container ship GFS Pride sank after being struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday. All twenty-one crew members were safely evacuated. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps published footage of what appeared to be the same ship sinking. The group claimed the vessel was carrying 2,500 containers of contraband and had taken an unauthorised route. Middle East oil exports have slowed as the number of ship strikes has risen. Data from the trade intelligence firm Kpler shows that about 12.6 million barrels per day went through the strait on 13 October. This is below the 15 million barrels reported at the end of September and compares with a pre-war baseline of some 17 million barrels per day.

The recent increase in attacks coincides with US Navy data indicating that the number of vessels given assistance to navigate the Strait of Hormuz during the first ten days of October was up 85 per cent compared with the same period in August. Most of the oil being shipped from Gulf Arab states recently has been carried using a shuttle system. In this arrangement, a fleet of tankers loads up and sails through the strait before transferring their cargo to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman. These shuttle ships use a route close to Oman’s coastline. Iran describes this route as unauthorised and insists that vessels take an alternative route closer to its own shore.

So-called assisted transits were a key factor in helping drive oil flows from the Middle East back towards pre-war levels in September. This does not include Iranian exports, which have completely stalled as a result of the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships. Martin Kelly, chief executive of Orbital Risk Intelligence, said Iran has evolved its strategy in response to this loosening of its control over the strait. He noted that the country has been carrying out near daily or multiple attacks every single day. The aim, he added, is to stop ships going through and to deter others. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy has said strikes would not be limited to the Strait of Hormuz and later announced a new deployment formation across the region, according to state media.

Martin Kelly told BBC Verify that Iran is widening its attacks and targeting ships near the coast of Gulf Arab states and in the Gulf of Oman. A tanker was struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar on Thursday 8 October, more than 500 kilometres from the strait, resulting in multiple reported casualties, according to Vanguard. Another tanker was attacked close to the UAE town of Al-Jazirah al-Hamra on Friday 9 October. Verified footage shows crew members running across the deck and putting on lifejackets as a large cloud of black smoke rises over the ship.