UK minister urges contingency planning for potential AI job losses

The UK government must prepare for the possibility of an unprecedented impact on the labour market caused by artificial intelligence, according to the country’s AI minister. Kanishka Narayan, who was appointed to the role by Andy Burnham in July, stated that while there is currently no evidence of an overall reduction in jobs due to AI, a contingency plan is a priority. Speaking at a fringe meeting during the Labour Party conference, he emphasised the need to be ahead of the curve in case the technology causes significant disruption. He described the situation as requiring serious consideration of worst-case scenarios to ensure the nation is adequately prepared.

Carsten Jung, a representative from the IPPR think tank, provided context on the potential scale of the issue. He suggested that in a severe scenario, approximately eight million jobs could be negatively affected. Jung noted that the think tank is currently developing a report on pandemic preparedness specifically regarding AI labour market disruption. Although he acknowledged that current levels of AI adoption in industry are not yet high enough to guarantee massive job losses, he argued that the impact on the labour market would likely exceed that of the industrial revolution. He admitted that previous stark scenarios produced by the IPPR in 2024 were partially incorrect, but he maintained that AI has evolved rapidly since then, moving from simple tasks to more complex reasoning and creative functions.

Jung highlighted that about 11% of UK jobs are highly exposed to replacement by AI chatbots, particularly in secretarial and administrative roles. However, with the emergence of more sophisticated agentic AI, he warned that the proportion of tasks across the UK economy that could be affected might rise to around 60%. He argued that the government needs to be ready to assist in retraining service sector workers and implement measures to slow the transition to keep people employed. This could include redesigning tax structures to make retaining human workers more attractive than automating their roles. He cautioned that policies for severe disruption would be costly, especially given the UK’s service-based economy compared to other G7 nations. Additionally, he pointed out that women are 40% more exposed to these threats than men due to their higher representation in service jobs.

Minister Narayan suggested that the impact of AI might be underestimated because of silent adoption by workers, which does not appear in industry surveys. He noted that while UK firms report no aggregate impact on the labour market today, some technology companies have indicated they are hiring fewer people due to automation. This suggests the net impact may not be fully captured in current data. The minister expressed a determination to ensure workers have a voice in the transition, promising better transparency when AI is adopted so that productivity gains can be measured. He stated that thinking through contingency measures is a top priority, which may involve changes to labour market policy and aspects of regulation.

Mike Clancy, general secretary of the Prospect trade union, welcomed the government’s commitment to giving workers more of a say. However, he warned against creating conditions where working people become victims of AI. Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband used his conference speech to issue a warning to technology giants. He argued that these companies cannot be relied upon to manage safety risks alone, noting that while some call for action, others prefer to leave matters to themselves. Miliband stated that history shows corporations should not be left to set guardrails for the public interest, as their primary motive is profit maximisation. He asserted that the UK will confront urgent risks, including using its G20 presidency next year to lead efforts in managing AI to keep the country and the world safe.