Canada poised to double uranium exports by 2035 despite execution hurdles

A senior risk expert at Marsh Canada has stated that the nation possesses sufficient resources and a robust project pipeline to meet the federal objective of doubling uranium exports within two decades, yet success will depend entirely on effective implementation. Raul Munoz, managing director for mining and natural resources at the firm, emphasised that while technical capability is not in doubt, the primary obstacle lies in advancing projects through permitting processes, securing financing, and executing policy measures with necessary speed.

Canada currently ranks as the world’s second-largest uranium producer following Kazakhstan. All domestic production originates from high-grade operations located exclusively within northern Saskatchewan, a jurisdiction where mining activities are concentrated. The major mines at McArthur River and Cigar Lake are operated by Cameco, while Orano Canada runs McClean Lake to process ore sourced from Cigar Lake. The country exports yellowcake and uranium dioxide but lacks domestic enrichment facilities because its primary CANDU reactors operate using natural, unenriched uranium.

The federal government unveiled a national uranium strategy in June with the aim of doubling export volumes by 2035 while bolstering supply chains, supporting Indigenous participation, and establishing Canada as a secure supplier. Munoz noted that the reserve base is substantial, citing projects such as NexGen Energy’s Rook I development and Denison Mines’ Wheeler River project as proof that the production target is technically feasible.

However, Munoz identified execution risk as the principal threat to achieving these goals. He explained that mine development typically requires between ten and twenty years and cannot be accelerated rapidly. Beyond regulatory approval and government support, maintaining uranium prices at levels sufficient to justify continued investment will also be critical for long-term viability.

Geopolitical factors remain a significant consideration, particularly regarding relationships with customers in Europe and the United States. Munoz highlighted that geopolitics is synonymous with operations in the mining sector. He pointed out an emerging issue as Canada expands its ambitions in small modular reactors. While CANDU reactors use natural uranium requiring no enrichment, many SMR designs require enriched uranium, creating a processing step currently absent from Canadian domestic capabilities.

Despite this gap, Munoz expressed confidence regarding Canada’s nuclear technology capabilities and sees little technological risk associated with SMRs as deployment expands. He noted that the federal strategy is comprehensive, incorporating innovation, Indigenous rights and ownership, and broader sustainability considerations including ESG factors. Furthermore, he suggested that higher long-term demand for nuclear fuel could eventually render previously shuttered uranium operations economically viable again if global trends continue to move in a positive direction toward nuclear energy.

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