EDF warns energy bills could rise 13 percent by 2030 without tax extensions

Energy bills in the United Kingdom could increase by 13 percent by the end of the decade if current government support measures are not extended, according to a new analysis by the French energy supplier EDF. The company estimates that the average dual-fuel bill will be more than a tenth higher than levels recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025 if existing interventions lapse. This projection highlights the potential financial impact on households as the energy sector navigates significant infrastructure changes and policy adjustments.

EDF stated that costs have risen two or three times since initial forecasts by transmission operators, based on its review of data from the regulator Ofgem. The analysis suggests that the removal of value added tax from electricity bills and the shift of renewables obligation costs into general taxation have had a notable impact on short-term expenses. The company noted that extending these measures could reduce the average dual-fuel bill by approximately 90 pounds for customers in 2030. However, EDF described the future of these interventions as uncertain, noting that maintaining the current policy framework would cost 3.5 billion pounds in that year, despite declining costs as the renewables scheme draws to a close.

Government officials responded to the findings, with Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh stating that the department is actively working to drive bills down. She referenced the removal of VAT and the reduction of policy costs at the Budget as steps already taken to alleviate the burden on consumers. Fahnbulleh added that the government will continue to examine how these costs are recovered, indicating a commitment to managing the financial impact of energy system upgrades. The Secretary emphasised that there is more work to be done to ensure affordability for households across the country.

Opposition figures have also weighed in on the issue, with Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho describing the EDF report as a sombre warning about the soaring cost of delivering transmission projects. Coutinho argued that the extensive grid build-out would not be necessary if the government did not aim for a system dominated by wind and solar power. She suggested that dense power generation sources, such as nuclear, require significantly less grid infrastructure than diffuse renewable sources. This perspective aligns with an analysis by the political think tank Onward, which proposed an alternative pathway prioritising firm power that it claims could save consumers 137 billion pounds.

The financial burden on consumers is further compounded by existing energy debt, which currently stands at 4.79 billion pounds. Energy UK forecasts that this figure could reach 7 billion pounds by the end of 2026, adding approximately 60 pounds to the average household bill. EDF has called for greater transparency regarding future energy costs, along with actions to control network and policy expenses. The company also advocated for specific discounts for households struggling with debt and fuel poverty, aiming to mitigate the impact of rising costs on vulnerable groups.