European Gas Futures Surge 3 Percent as Trump Sets Iran Strike Deadline

European natural gas futures opened higher on Tuesday as markets monitored escalating tensions in Iran following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed beyond 8pm Eastern Time. The ultimatum included potential strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges if a diplomatic resolution proves elusive.

The May 2026 contract of the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, which serves as the European benchmark for gas trading, commenced trading 3 per cent higher in Amsterdam on Tuesday morning. Prices stood marginally above $58, equivalent to 50 euros per megawatt hour.

Since hostilities erupted in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz effectively trapped approximately 20 per cent of daily global liquefied natural gas flows, Europe’s benchmark gas prices have surged by roughly 55 per cent. On 27 February, the day preceding the commencement of US and Israeli bombing operations against Iran, the front month futures traded at $37, or 32 euros per megawatt hour.

Europe confronts a challenging refill season this spring and summer, with gas storage sites depleted to levels unseen in recent years following the winter months. The continent faces intensifying competition for spot LNG supply as Asian buyers, who receive approximately 85 per cent of the LNG traditionally transiting the Strait of Hormuz, outbid European purchasers. Whilst Europe’s direct supply exposure stands at approximately 15 per cent, the dramatic price escalation threatens to derail planned storage replenishment.

No LNG cargo has successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz in over a month. Recent attempts proved unsuccessful, as two vessels carrying Qatari LNG were compelled to abandon efforts to exit the strait in what would have marked the first export of Qatari LNG since the conflict commenced.

Gas prices could experience further volatility should hostilities escalate to include US strikes on critical Iranian infrastructure, which would likely prompt Iranian retaliation and prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated at a White House press conference on Monday evening that the entire country could be neutralised in a single night, adding that such action might occur imminently.