Global gasoline car sales fall below half for first time

The share of gasoline-powered vehicles in global automotive sales has dropped below 50 per cent for the first time in recorded history. This historic shift was driven by record-high fuel prices resulting from the disruption of fuel markets following the conflict in the Middle East. The surge in costs for petrol and diesel has accelerated a previously slow transition toward electric vehicles in markets outside of China, prompting a significant change in consumer behaviour across Europe, South America and the Asia Pacific region.

According to data from automotive analytics provider Mobility Global, cited by Nikkei Asia, sales of gas-powered vehicles, excluding hybrids, fell by 10 per cent year-on-year between January and June. This decline reduced the total volume to 20.25 million cars. Consequently, the share of these vehicles in total global automotive sales decreased by three percentage points to 49 per cent. For years, the uptake of electric vehicles in markets outside China had lagged behind forecasts and remained sluggish. However, the recent crisis, which saw oil prices reach 100 US dollars and pushed diesel and gasoline prices to record highs, has forced many consumers to reconsider their purchasing decisions in favour of electric alternatives.

The impact has been particularly pronounced in Europe. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA, indicates that battery electric vehicle sales in the region, which includes the UK, Switzerland and Norway, surged by 52.2 per cent in August compared with the same month in the previous year. In Germany, the largest car market in Europe, sales of battery electric vehicles soared by 75 per cent year-on-year during the same period. This spike coincided with gasoline prices in Germany hitting an all-time high of 2.31 euros per litre, equivalent to approximately 10 US dollars per gallon. In France, another major European market, electric vehicle sales more than doubled during the same timeframe.

Analysts from the German Institute for Economic Research, DIW, noted that sales in Germany are accelerating further due to a government purchase premium for electric vehicles introduced from January 2026. Their analysis revealed that one in every four passenger cars sold in Germany between January and August was a pure battery electric vehicle. The share was even higher in August, with one in every three passenger cars sold being a battery electric vehicle. This represents a significant increase from the average share of 19 per cent recorded in 2025.

Globally, the International Energy Agency reported that electric vehicle sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter of the year. Sales rose by 35 per cent compared with the first quarter, a trend the agency attributed to the energy crisis sparked by the war in the Middle East bringing fuel price volatility back into sharp focus. The agency noted that electric vehicle sales reached record-high levels in 50 countries during the second quarter as drivers preferred electric vehicles amid soaring fuel costs. In sizable car markets such as Brazil, India, Australia and Vietnam, electric car sales roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period in 2025. Furthermore, as many as 90 countries witnessed annual growth in electric vehicle sales in the first half of the year.

Analysts at Wood Mackenzie suggest that the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles, which began with the spike in oil and fuel prices, is set to remain a trend in global markets. They predict this could push the share of electric vehicles in the passenger fleet above earlier expectations. However, challenges to accelerated adoption remain, including the need for billions of US dollars in investments in critical battery minerals supply and charging networks. The analysts note that the longer the Strait of Hormuz crisis roils global fuel markets, the stronger the case for electric vehicle adoption could become.