Offshore Wind Farm Delays Risk UK Clean Energy Goal

Experts at Cornwall Insight have warned that the UK government is on course to miss its target for decarbonising the power sector by as much as a decade. The goal, set by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, aims for 95 per cent clean-power generation by the end of this decade. Current projections suggest Britain will only achieve 86 per cent low-carbon generation by 2030.

Factors contributing to this shortfall include rising electricity demand, scheduled closures of nuclear power plants, and delays in constructing new low-carbon generation facilities. These challenges are likely to result in increased reliance on polluting gas plants to bridge the gap in low-carbon energy supply.

According to Tom Edwards, principal modeller at Cornwall Insight, the realistic timeframe for meeting the 95 per cent clean-power target now extends into the mid-2030s to mid-2040s. The report highlights real-world challenges in the energy sector, such as persistent delays in grid connections, escalating capital costs due to higher interest rates, and slower progress in offshore wind and nuclear projects. These issues are compounded by uncertainties regarding long-term policy frameworks.

Electricity demand is expected to rise over the next few years, driven by factors such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, and the growing data requirements for artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, two ageing nuclear plants are scheduled to be decommissioned in 2028. The new Hinkley Point C nuclear plant, originally anticipated to begin generating power last year, may not commence operations until 2029 or even 2031 at the earliest.

This situation creates a pressing need for additional low-carbon power stations. Current forecasts suggest that the planned new renewables will fall short of meeting this demand by 2030. Cornwall Insight anticipates that gas generation will compensate for the lack of low-carbon energy.

The government is expected to award subsidy contracts exceeding £1 billion annually to support several new offshore wind farms. These projects could potentially make it possible to meet the 2030 target; however, the analysis suggests that more than double the expected output will be required. A further auction is slated for later this year, yet projects awarded subsidies may face difficulties in timely construction.

Insufficient low-carbon generation poses a significant threat to the target as well. The National Energy System Operator has informed the government that the clean energy goal cannot be realised without expediting two vital cabling projects in East Anglia. These projects are designed to transmit electricity from new offshore wind farms to consumers in London and the South East and are not projected to be operational until 2031.

The timeframe for achieving the clean power target remains uncertain. According to some industry experts, achieving this goal is contingent upon favourable conditions, such as slower demand growth or accelerated advancements in nuclear and grid infrastructure.