SpaceX Prepares for Earnings Release Ahead of Major Insider Lock Up Expiry

SpaceX Corp will release its inaugural earnings report as a publicly listed entity following the close of trading on Tuesday, arriving just two days before a substantial portion of insider holdings becomes eligible for sale. The company faces scrutiny as its share price trades significantly below its initial public offering level.

Market analysts anticipate second quarter revenue of approximately $6.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of roughly 68%. Loss per share is expected to range between $0.23 and $0.35. The company recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion during 2025, whilst the first quarter of the current year saw losses widen to $4.2 billion from $528 million, despite revenues reaching $4.6 billion.

Profitability remains absent from market expectations, directing investor attention towards the trajectory and magnitude of losses rather than their mere existence.

The more significant event materialises on Thursday, when approximately 911.5 million shares held by early investors and employees become tradeable for the first time. This represents roughly 20% of restricted insider holdings, valued at close to $100 billion at prevailing market prices, substantially exceeding the $75 billion raised during the June flotation.

Additional tranches will unlock progressively throughout the autumn months, with a 28% release scheduled two days following third quarter results and the balance freed by December. Elon Musk’s personal holding remains subject to restrictions until June of the following year.

Morgan Stanley has characterised the coming days as the most precarious period since the flotation, given the temporal proximity of the earnings announcement and the lock up expiration. The investment bank maintains an overweight rating alongside a $300 price target, contending that the market underestimates the value of the artificial intelligence operations.

Shares closed at $108.37 on Friday, contrasting with an offer price of $135 and a post-listing peak of $225.64. Short interest stands at approximately 219 million shares, representing roughly one third of the free float. Options markets are pricing a potential movement of 14% to 15% in either direction following the results announcement.

Four key disclosures merit particular attention. Starlink profitability stands foremost, following the satellite broadband division’s conclusion of March with 10.3 million subscribers and $3.3 billion in quarterly revenue, comprising approximately 70% of group totals.

The second consideration concerns cash generation from Falcon 9 launches, which provide reliable funding for broader operations. Third, the magnitude of spending on computing infrastructure warrants examination, with estimates placing total capital expenditure near $13 billion for the quarter.

The fourth focal point involves Starship, where a launch abort on 16 July, followed by an uncommon Falcon 9 abort four days subsequently, has intensified questions regarding operational execution.