Goldman Sachs finds AI hits junior white-collar hiring hardest

Junior white-collar workers are bearing the brunt of artificial intelligence related hiring pressures, according to new research from Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street bank’s analysis indicates a widening gap between entry level staff and their more experienced counterparts in sectors such as consulting and advertising. While the overall impact on the broader labour market remains modest, the study highlights that the traditional pathway into professional services careers is under strain as generative AI increasingly performs research and administrative tasks previously handled by junior employees.

The bank examined employment data across more than 800 occupations to assess these trends. It found that industries with high exposure to AI automation have experienced weaker growth in job openings since the second half of 2022. Management consulting, advertising, software publishing and call centres have fallen furthest below their historic employment trends. In the information and communications services sector, employment growth has slowed across almost all major developed economies since 2022. Globally, a ten per cent occupational exposure to AI was linked to only a 0.1 percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in the US, France and Canada. However, for entry level workers, the estimated effect was significantly higher, exceeding 0.2 percentage points in the US and 0.6 percentage points in Australia.

These findings arrive as Britain’s labour market shows signs of slowing. Vacancies dropped to 707,000 in the three months to July, marking the lowest level in over five years. Payroll employment fell for a sixth consecutive month, and private sector regular wage growth decelerated to 2.8 per cent, the weakest pace since October 2020. Goldman Sachs noted that its research does not attribute this broader UK slowdown to AI, concluding that the technology’s employment effects remain concentrated in a narrow group of industries. Nevertheless, the bank identified the UK as a leading economy for AI adoption, alongside the US, France and the Netherlands. Separate research from Lloyds Business Barometer revealed that 54 per cent of UK businesses reported AI creating new roles, while 58 per cent plan to increase spending on AI skills. Amanda Murphy, chief executive of Lloyds Business and Commercial Banking, stated that companies must build the skills, culture and confidence required to use the technology effectively.