Standardised turbines could cut North Sea wind costs by 28%

The North Sea offshore wind sector could achieve cost reductions of up to 28 per cent by 2050 if turbine designs are standardised and project pipelines become more predictable. A new study by DNV, which analysed responses from eight companies across the European supply chain, outlines three distinct scenarios for the industry’s future. The research suggests that consistent deployment and longer production runs are critical to lowering the levelised cost of energy significantly over the coming decades.

Under a business as usual scenario, characterised by moderate growth and short production runs for current turbine platforms, the levelised cost of energy is projected to fall by only around five per cent by 2035. However, extending production runs increases this reduction to 14 per cent by 2035 and 25 per cent by 2050. The most favourable outcome, involving sustained deployment, sees costs drop by 19 per cent by 2035 and 28 per cent by 2050. The model uses turbines of approximately 15MW on monopile foundations as a reference point, without designating this as the optimal size or restricting future technological development.

Ditlev Engel, DNV’s CEO for energy systems, stated that suppliers require firm capacity commitments to justify investment. He noted that while Europe’s long-term demand targets are clear, the industry needs visible and investable project pipelines to ensure steadier demand. This stability allows for better utilisation of existing capacity and highlights where further investment is required. He emphasised that firm delivery is the most important key performance indicator for reducing costs.

The report indicates that existing European manufacturing capacity can broadly meet near-term demand for 15MW turbines, contradicting previous calls for immediate scale-up for floating wind ambitions. The primary driver for cost reductions is the lowering of capital expenditures, with additional savings coming from installation and substructure costs. DNV warned that in high-volume scenarios, port capacity and installation limits may become constraints, necessitating expansion and targeted upgrades. The organisation urged policymakers to convert deployment targets, such as the UK’s Clean Power 2030 goal of a minimum 43GW of offshore wind, into tangible project pipelines to facilitate these savings.