Global IPO momentum stalls as AI valuation fears grip markets

The anticipated surge in global initial public offerings following the high-profile listing of SpaceX has failed to materialise, with momentum in the equity markets grinding to a halt over the past four months. What was once projected to be a period of robust activity for new listings has instead been characterised by a series of postponements and withdrawals. This cooling of investor appetite has significantly dampened expectations for a blockbuster season, particularly in the technology sector, where several major players have scaled back their ambitions for public market entry.

The slowdown is most evident in the United States, where Wall Street activity has decelerated sharply since the $75 billion listing of the aerospace company. Recent weeks have seen a cluster of high-profile firms delay their plans, including smart-ring manufacturer Oura, data centre operator SB Energy, fuel retailer EG Group, and nuclear energy firm Holtec. These pauses have cast a shadow over the broader market, creating uncertainty for other major technology entities that were expected to follow SpaceX into the public domain during the summer months. Analysts attribute this shift to a combination of lukewarm investor demand and growing anxiety regarding the soaring valuations within the artificial intelligence sector.

Renaissance Capital analysts noted that after a strong second quarter, many issuers prepared deals with price expectations that now appear too high for the current, more volatile market conditions. Concerns about a potential downturn in the AI industry have intensified as investors scrutinise valuations and push back against aggressive data centre spending. SB Energy, which has backing from SoftBank, faced particular criticism for reportedly targeting a $50 billion valuation despite not yet bringing a single facility online. This scepticism is compounded by the phenomenon of post-listing sell-offs, where shares that were heavily oversubscribed at launch subsequently drop in value. SpaceX shares, for instance, surged by roughly 19 per cent on their first day of trading but have since trended downwards, currently hovering around $158.90.

This trend of volatility is not confined to the United States. In Shanghai, humanoid robot manufacturer Unitree Robotics saw its shares jump 460 per cent above the IPO price in its first session, only to tumble by 46.7 per cent in the weeks that followed. Renaissance Capital suggested that while companies may cite adverse market conditions for their delays, the reality is closer to normalised market behaviour. Firms less directly connected to the AI boom have also pointed to widespread market volatility as a reason for holding off on listings. Oura, which aimed to raise up to $2.2 billion in a $15.6 billion deal, blamed general uncertainty in the IPO market, while Holtec cited unfavourable conditions amid volatile oil prices and rising bond yields.

The impact has been felt across the Atlantic as well. In the United Kingdom, only seven listings have been recorded this year, raising a total of £577 million in the first half according to EY. The only notable exception was the May listing of a 30 per cent stake in Uznif, Uzbekistan’s national investment fund. Kat Kravtsov, capital markets director at PwC UK, stated that many companies are currently assessing launch timing against a backdrop of fiscal policy developments and wider macroeconomic uncertainty. While a limited number of listings are expected before the end of 2026, much of the visible pipeline is focused on early 2027.

Despite the broader pessimism, London received a boost last week when African payments firm Airtel Money confirmed its £5.3 billion debut for October 14. However, sentiment among money managers remains cautious. Berenberg’s latest Investor Barometer indicates that just 32 per cent expect activity to pick up in the next 12 months, a significant drop from 63 per cent six months ago. Fears of derailment have also seeped into Europe, with boutique hotel company Ennismore reportedly reconsidering its IPO plans in a joint venture with French hospitality group Accor.