Aramco chief warns low oil stocks will sustain demand for two years

Amin Nasser, the chief executive of Aramco, has cautioned that the necessity to rebuild global oil inventories will support market demand for a period of at least 18 to 24 months. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum, the Saudi executive noted that if regional conflicts take longer to resolve, the duration of this demand support will extend further. He described the current situation as digging a much bigger hole, acknowledging that there appear to be few chances of a quick normalisation in the near term.

Nasser stated that the market will require at least two million barrels per day for up to two years simply to refill depleted stores. He warned that global oil inventories are at perilously low levels, with less than six billion barrels remaining today. The executive emphasised that the vast majority of these reserves are not practically available, estimating that only 10% of current stores can be accessed. This assessment follows a weekend of increased domestic hostilities, which included reports of additional strikes on Aramco facilities, including the crucial East-West pipeline.

Energy Intelligence has estimated that the Middle East crisis has resulted in a cumulative loss of around 2.4 billion barrels from March to September. Nasser observed that the system is already straining under this pressure. In response, Aramco has invested in resilience, maintaining ten teams available to respond to emergencies. The company’s domestic capacity investments have enabled it to meet needs quickly, with the CEO describing every attack as a learning experience. He claimed that Aramco was six times better than the industry average before the crisis and would be even stronger after it.

The company currently operates three export routes. While capacity has been constrained through west coast exports, Aramco has increased shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. To mitigate risk for counterparties unwilling to accept Hormuz exposure, the firm has increased ship-to-ship transfers. Aramco is also considering fourth and fifth export options, with design and engineering work under way. Nasser declined to provide exact figures on export levels but highlighted the company’s long-term maintenance of the East-West pipeline over 50 years.

During the 2026 crisis, Aramco recovered all costs, including inflation and operations, within 14 days. The CEO argued that such investments pay out when needed. Aramco is also increasing its gas capacity, currently producing the equivalent of 3.3 million barrels per day, with plans to rise to six million barrels per day. By 2040, the company aims to produce the equivalent of nine million barrels per day of gas. Nasser stated that the firm is increasing resilience while investing in renewables and considering carbon capture and storage.