Tesla Rides Robotaxi Momentum into Earnings Season

Tesla Inc is approaching its second quarter earnings report with investor attention focused squarely on the rapid expansion of its robotaxi operations. Bank of America has maintained its Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $460, citing the service’s accelerating deployment, delivery figures that substantially exceeded Wall Street expectations, and forthcoming production milestones for the company’s Optimus humanoid robot.

The investment bank indicated that market participants will concentrate on the velocity of robotaxi fleet expansion and the rollout of additional markets. Tesla currently operates in five markets following the 3rd July launch in Miami, although its San Francisco service continues to require a safety driver. Four additional markets are under preparation, falling short of the company’s initial objective of nine cities by the first half of 2026.

The Texas fleet has demonstrated particularly robust growth, with more than 100 vehicles added over the preceding month to reach a total of 175 units. This represents the fastest expansion among robotaxi operators tracked by Bank of America. Safety performance has remained strong, with 22 incidents recorded through mid-June since service commencement and no serious injuries or fatalities reported.

Pricing analysis conducted by the bank in San Francisco during June revealed Tesla’s service was 21 per cent cheaper on average than competitors Waymo, Uber and Lyft. Wait times, however, extended three to four times longer, suggesting demand is currently outstripping available capacity.

Regarding core automotive operations, Tesla reported second quarter deliveries of approximately 480,000 vehicles, surpassing consensus estimates of roughly 406,000 units and marking a 25 per cent year-on-year increase. This performance compares favourably with S&P forecasts for global battery electric vehicle sales growth of 15 per cent year-on-year, implying Tesla captured approximately 95 basis points of additional BEV market share. The company’s US market share rose 50 basis points year-on-year to 46.1 per cent during the quarter.

Bank of America highlighted forthcoming developments regarding Optimus. Tesla is targeting initial production at its Fremont facility for late July or August, potentially coinciding with a Generation 3 unveiling. Production at the Giga Texas facility is anticipated around summer 2027. Whilst the bank expects a gradual production ramp, it identifies substantial long-term prospects, projecting global humanoid robot shipments of 1.2 million units by 2030 and 10 million by 2035.

The energy storage segment is also expected to garner attention following Tesla’s agreement with NatPower for 25 gigawatt hours utilising its Megapack system. Tesla maintains its position as the leading battery energy storage systems provider in the United States, a sector now attracting new entrants including Ford, General Motors and BorgWarner.

Bank of America characterised Tesla as being in the nascent stages of monetising its autonomy capabilities, which the firm views as the most significant transformative force in the transition towards autonomous electric transportation.