Trump economic approval hits record low as midterm elections approach

President Donald Trump’s economic approval rating has reached its lowest level in either of his two terms, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey. With less than two weeks remaining until the congressional elections, public sentiment towards the economy has deteriorated significantly, mirroring the pessimism observed as the nation emerged from the pandemic. The polling data, released on Thursday, indicates that eight out of ten Americans now rate the economy as fair or poor, the highest proportion recorded since December 2023. This shift presents a challenging environment for Republican candidates in the upcoming midterm elections.

The survey, which polled 1,000 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, found that overall economic pessimism has risen to 63 percent, up one percentage point from the previous survey in July. A notable driver of this decline is a marked increase in pessimism among Republican voters. Currently, 35 percent of Republicans express a negative view of the current economic state and outlook, a six-point increase from July and the highest level of Republican pessimism recorded during Trump’s presidency. Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey, attributed this shift to a breakdown in the small margin of Republican support for the economy that had previously persisted.

In terms of congressional control, the survey shows a 52 percent to 45 percent preference for Democratic leadership, representing a seven-point edge for Democrats. This margin reflects a three-point gain for the Democratic Party since July. Interest in the November 3 election is also higher among Democrats, with 72 percent reporting high interest compared to 62 percent of Republicans. Women are 10 percentage points more interested in the election than men and prefer Democratic control by 22 points. Independents also lean towards Democratic control by a wide margin of 49 percent to 33 percent. In the eight states with competitive Senate races, respondents prefer Democratic congressional control by four percentage points, despite Trump carrying those states by a combined 10 points in the 2024 presidential election.

Despite the economic concerns, Trump’s overall approval rating remains stable at 40 percent approving and 59 percent disapproving, resulting in a net approval of minus 19 percentage points. However, his net economic approval has dropped sharply by nine points since July, falling to minus 31. Economic disapproval has risen to 65 percent, a level one point higher than the worst showing for former President Joe Biden and the highest for any president surveyed by CNBC since the Obama administration. Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Associates, the Democratic pollster for the survey, described the data as a cause for concern for Republican campaigns in the final two weeks.

Government corruption emerged as the top concern for 36 percent of respondents, with Democrats holding a four-point lead on addressing the issue. The cost of food and groceries is the second most important issue, where the Democratic lead widened to 16 points from seven in July. Democrats also outperform Republicans on protecting democracy and dealing with high gas prices. Conversely, Republicans maintain a strong advantage on border security and immigration, though their lead on immigration has narrowed to nine points from 15. The public remains skeptical of the value of military action against Iran, with only 46 percent believing it was worth it to disrupt nuclear development, down from 53 percent in April. Additionally, 93 percent of respondents believe elected officials should not be allowed to trade stocks in companies with federal contracts, and 89 percent oppose federal contracts for companies owned by a sitting president’s immediate family.

Prices remain a dominant concern, with 57 percent of respondents citing the cost of food, gas, and housing as their top issue. Eighty percent say prices are rising, a five-point increase from a year ago. While both pollsters caution against predicting a massive realignment, they agree the electorate is tilting towards Democrats. Roberts noted the battle is between the map and momentum, while Campbell described the trend as a return to the mean, driven by young voters, voters of colour, and independents dissatisfied with the current economic policies.