Bitcoin bettors see a bounce but the big targets stay long odds

Bitcoin has recovered to $63,000, prompting Polymarket participants to anticipate a modest extension of gains. The recovery represents a sharp reversal from the pessimism that prevailed earlier in the week.

On 1 July, the cryptocurrency fell below $58,000 to reach a 21-month low, concluding a difficult June in which it declined approximately 20% in its worst monthly performance of the year.

The rebound owes more to macroeconomic developments than to cryptocurrency-specific factors. A weak American employment report, which showed just 57,000 positions added in June, alleviated concerns that the Federal Reserve might implement additional interest rate increases. Lower rates tend to support Bitcoin by diminishing the attractiveness of cash and bonds, and the softer employment data proved sufficient to trigger short covering among traders who had positioned for further declines.

Polymarket, a prediction market platform where participants wager real capital on future events, now assigns 74% odds to Bitcoin reaching $65,000 at some point during July. Confidence deteriorates rapidly beyond that threshold. The probability of touching $67,500 stands at 46%, approximately even odds, whilst $70,000 is priced at 24% and $72,500 at merely 12%. A rally to $75,000 is rated a 6% possibility, and the once-popular $100,000 milestone barely registers at approximately 1%.

This cautious sentiment aligns with the broader mood across trading desks, where several banks have revised their forecasts downward rather than upward. The market has endured substantial losses this year, falling from an October 2025 record near $126,000 as exchange-traded fund investors withdrew capital and rotated into artificial intelligence equities.

The next critical test arrives at the Federal Reserve’s meeting on 28 and 29 July. For the present, market participants are positioning for a moderate summer recovery rather than a return to previous peaks.